I flopped the nuts!

I spent some of Christmas Eve morning on Full Tilt, playing raked tables.  I actually took minor hits in my first two sessions, but the last one before I got up to go church / Grandma’s house was a big one, and my online bankroll cracked $500, up from $100 at the start of October.

That breaks down like this:

• I’m up about $100 in those 5-handed $10+1s at Pacific that pay 3 spots.
• I’m down about $200 in other sit n’ gos.
• I’m break-even in heads-up tournaments.
• I’m up about $400 in cash games, even though I don’t play those that often.

The rest is probably bonuses, I’m guessing.  Anyway, cracking $500 was great.  I think I can start playing .25/.50 NL, unless that goes really poorly, and then I’ll have to reconsider.

The kicker is this: I won $200 in Full Tilt’s daily contest on Dec. 24.  So, as of today, my bankroll’s at about $750.  Unreal!

3-handed, I’m massive chip-leader.

PokerStars Game #3391082495: Tournament #16808820, Hold’em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2005/12/20 - 22:19:17 (ET)
Table ‘16808820 1′ Seat #7 is the button
Seat 7: jlf88 (1570 in chips)
Seat 8: dnord520 (6765 in chips)
Seat 9: dgaughy (665 in chips)
dnord520: posts small blind 25
dgaughy: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dnord520 [9s Ts]
jlf88: calls 50
dnord520: calls 25

Some would say this is a raising situation shorthanded (since nobody’s shown strength), but I don’t agree. 

dgaughy: checks
*** FLOP *** [6h 8h 7c]   

I am not even that concerned about the flush draw: for whatever reason, I slowplay the nut straight.

dnord520: checks
dgaughy: bets 150
jlf88: calls 150

This is why you slowplay: folks with pairs, two pairs… those who are badly beaten?  They’ll try to steal it from you.

dnord520: raises 6565 to 6715 and is all-in
dgaughy: calls 465 and is all-in

Your first mistake.

jlf88: calls 1370 and is all-in

Bringing a friend, are you?  We flip over.  jlf88’s got Th9h: my exact hand, except he’s got a straight flush draw, and a not-bad flush draw, until you see dgaughy’s Ah5h, the nut-flush draw.  Either way, I’m 60% to split the pot here… I just need no heart.

*** TURN *** [6h 8h 7c] [Qd]
*** RIVER *** [6h 8h 7c Qd] [2h]

Ah well.

*** SHOW DOWN ***
dnord520: shows [9s Ts] (a straight, Six to Ten)
jlf88: shows [9h Th] (a flush, Ten high)
dnord520 said, "whoops"
jlf88 collected 1810 from side pot
dgaughy: shows [Ah 5h] (a flush, Ace high)
dgaughy collected 1995 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3805 Main pot 1995. Side pot 1810. | Rake 0
Board [6h 8h 7c Qd 2h]
Seat 7: jlf88 (button) showed [9h Th] and won (1810) with a flush, Ten high
Seat 8: dnord520 (small blind) showed [9s Ts] and lost with a straight, Six to Ten
Seat 9: dgaughy (big blind) showed [Ah 5h] and won (1995) with a flush, Ace high

I would go on to win the tournament (despite losing that big pot), so it all ended well, but sheesh.  That’s a lot of decent hands right there.

I was playing the 5-handed SnGs on Pacific.  They’re my new favorite.  I hate the software, but the game is just too awesome to stop.

I’m chip-leader and pick up AA one off the button.  I min-raise, since I don’t want everyone to think I’m just pushing them around.  SB and BB will call.  J66 flop, with two suits matching.  Checked to me, so I bet half the pot in this situation… habit I picked up from Phil Gordon’s new book.  SB folds, and BB calls.  Turn is the third heart, and with no heart, I’m assuming that any caller for that bet has something, so when he checks, I check.  The river is a ten, helping nobody, so when he bets a third of the pot, I’m thinking I might be facing a lonely jack, or a busted flush draw… but no, he called my tiny raise with 63o and flopped the set.  Not a bad slowplay, but I resolved never to do that again.

I didn’t have to wait long.  The very next hand: AA again!  I was in the BB, and saw UTG limp.  SB did the same, completing the blind, so I push it hard: 6xBB.  UTG calls.

QQJ flop.  No flush draw, but I don’t like the straight draw, and I’m not gonna let this guy just draw his way past my past me… it’s close, but he’s got me covered.  I’d have a hard time betting the pot (about half of either of our stacks) and getting away from this hand if he pushed all-in.  I remember thinking "a jack is more likely than a queen here… I’m taking this pot now."

It was a very fast call of my all-in bet: he held QJ.  Not something I’d call a raise with, but it’s hard to tell someone that they aren’t playing well four-handed.  I know one of my friends will tell me that you have to push all-in, every time you’ve got AA online, because you will get called.  Someone will fall in love with their hand and make the mistake.  Once cards are on the board, you’re the one who might be behind, and how would you know?

It’s a thought.  I’ll put up a post about "you will get called", because it’s actually excellent advice in low-stakes NL, but today’s not the day.

I played with some friends over the weekend.  It might be sixth or seventh time I’ve seen some of these guys across the table, for a couple of hours of play.

But someone - a player whose observation skills I respect - told me that he knew, once I got involved in a pot, that I was going to keep firing at it.  That’s maybe the nicest thing anyone’s said about my game.

It’s true.  I love making the continuation bet, because with the people I play with, they mostly assume that I actually have a piece of it when I bet the flop (and have raised preflop).  If they call that one (and don’t raise it), it’s coming at them again.  No free cards against me.

This could have just as much to do with how tight I play, actually… I’m almost never in an important pot (again, against these guys) with a speculative hand.  I want to find out where I stand.  I want to punish draws.  I want loose players to reconsider.  Phil Hellmuth talks about firing the third bullet: I’m usually done with bluffs once I’ve tried pre-flop and post-flop, but I’m glad someone is paying attention to my aggressive play on the turn and river.

Since the kids were in daycare, I had the day completely to myself, so I decided to spend the day at Canterbury Park. 

First issue: I play $10 SnGs and .10/.25 NL online, almost exclusively.  They don’t play NL at Canterbury, and the lowest limits they do play are $2/$4.  I figured it’d be tough to burn through $200, so that’s how much I brought.  (To adjust to limit play, I made a note to play more suited aces and suited connectors for a single bet in late position, and to let go of a decent NL hand if a flush or straight seemed likely.)

"Act like you’ve been here, act like you’ve been here…" I kept saying to myself.  As I tried to make sense of the "28" underneath "2/4" on the Hold ‘em board, I told the staffer "I’ve never been here before."  She was nice and got me on the waiting list, and then the floor guy took me over to the 2/4 table.  "It’s right next to our highest limit table… fun group.  You’ll have a good time with them."  But as soon as there were eight of us on the waitlist (around 9am), they set up a new table. 

The guy in seat 3 recognized the dealer from his first session eight hours ago. 

"This dealer dealt two straight flushes in ten minutes!"

"I dealt you one, and you have the hat to prove it."

I noticed his stocking hat said "Canterbury".  A free hat for flipping over a straight flush?  Nice.  I was just surprised that anyone who was here gambling at 1am would still be lucid at 9am. 

On the second hand, three cards to a royal flush (in clubs) showed up on the flop.  The turn was the fourth club.  Mr. Hat was still in the hand, heads-up with an older woman.  "Do you have it?" he said to her.  He bet the turn and she called.  River was a blank.  He checked, she checked, and he turned over the Q for his second royal flush of the day.  "Another hat over here!"  (Checking to her would prove to be a ridiculous mistake - she just wouldn’t bet at anything, but would call absolutely everything.  But he couldn’t have known that yet.)

It was up and down, but I was finding that Malmuth’s advice was very, very true: these low-limit players called with trash, didn’t raise when they had the best of it, and went too far with hands that were certainly beaten.  The worst case was a guy in a Mystic Lake security shirt: probably just getting off a shift, this guy bought in for $100.  He’d raise preflop, frequently bet the flop, call all the way down, and then turn over a pocket pair that was never good.  I think I saw him hit his set once, but I also saw him build a huge pot on an AAK flop, and call off almost all of his chips with pocket jacks.  I never saw him show down a hand that wasn’t pocket pairs.  He rebought, lost that, and left.

I got extremely lucky with my own pocket pairs: 77.  Flop came 345, and I bet the overpair.  Mr. Hats called.  Turn was a nine or something, and I bet it, but got check-raised.  Hmm.  I knew he was a solid player, but I wondered if he could be that excited about a pair of nines.  I figured the odds of him having nothing were non-zero, and I was pretty deep in the hand, so I called for the additional $4.  The turn was a six, and when he bet, I called, almost sure I was beaten by something monstrous, but… he’d flopped the straight with A2, and slowplayed again, letting me draw to the inside straight.  I made mistakes, but they weren’t huge ones, and I got pretty lucky.

But bad luck cut both ways: I raised with KQ, caught my queen, and bet to the end.  One caller (the arthritic victim of the earlier full house).  She turned two pair (kept T5!  And I’m sure I raised!), and I lost a big pot.  I took advantage of her one last time when I had KQs, picked up a pair of kings and a flush draw, and was able to get called on every street, including the river, where I picked up the flush.  The dealer said my hand was very nice.

On my last hand, I caught AQ.  I raised, and got two callers.  Flop came K73, and I bet, thinking that it was… I don’t know, better than not betting?  One caller, other guy folds.  Turn is a Q, and I know it could be real trouble for me.  (See how good of a poker player I am?  I know about mistakes as I’m making them.)  I bet out, and the same guy calls.  River is a blank, and my feeling is that this guy is not playing a K (or if he is, he must have a terrible kicker), and since I’m gonna call his bet anyway, I might as well make it myself.  He calls, and flips over 77 for a set.  See what I’m saying?  You almost never have to worry about these people raising you.  With a lock hand, they’ll just call down, hoping to trap you. 

I cashed out down about $45.  That didn’t feel so good.  Culver’s, on the other hand, is awesome, and right across the street.  I wasn’t sure I wanted to get back in and play (I had some other projects to look at), but since I couldn’t get a hold of my wife, I figured I’d buy in for another $100 and just see what happened.

Again, they sat us at a new table.  For the second time, I was sitting across the table from someone with an iPod on.  That’s getting to be a poker-kid cliche (like you’re too awesome to pay attention to what’s happening at the table), so if you’re thinking about showing up in a live card room with an iPod on, you should probably reconsider.  I lost a few bets just getting a feel for the table, but then I absolutely went on a heater from poker Jesus.

AQ.  Raise, callers.  Raggy flop.  I bet, one caller.  Insignificant turn.  Bet, one call.  Q on the river.  Bet, call.

"Did you get lucky on the river?"

"Looks like I did"

"I knew I had you until the river.  You got lucky."

Okay, so there’s two things I could have said here.  One is "if you knew you were beat on the river, you should have folded".  The other, which is more constructive, is "give me any reason to fold, and I might.  You called all my bets, and I can’t fold unless you raise."  The value of aggression, illustrated.

But I thought about what to say to him, and I thought about table image, and I thought about what everyone else was thinking.  So I put on my dumb tourist voice and said…

"What am I gonna do, fold AQ?" 

Other guy rolled his eyes.  But I’d done my part to set myself up as a poor player: maybe that would pay off.

Next orbit, AQ again.  Same guy again.  Same circumstances - again.  Ace on the river this time. 

"Did you do it to me again?"

"Yep."

"That card’s not going to come on the river every time."

"Well, except you’ve got a really good read on me know.  I’m only playing ace-queen, so you know where you stand, right?"

More groaning from the villain.

Another nice hand: K3 in the big blind, flop A33.  I checked.  Turn was a king, and I bet it.  Callers.  River completed someone’s flush.  He bet, I raised, he called.  Fantastic.

I had made back the morning’s losses, and I didn’t lose another pot for the rest of the day.  In fact, I think I picked up two or three without resistance.  The best example: AK.  I raise.

Flop: 984.  I bet to define, two callers.

Turn: another 8.  I bet again.  One caller.

River: another 9.  Facing an unlikely (but possible) full house, I bet, thinking I’ll split (because someone else’s trashy kicker doesn’t matter).  Guy across the table thinks… and folds.  Big pot is all mine.

That kind of thing kept happening. 

I racked up around 3pm, up about $100, for a profit on the day of $55.  If I have any advice, it’s

• be sure you’re properly bankrolled, esp. if you’re used to microlimit online play, BUT
• you can use the exact same techniques.  2/4 and 3/6 and even 5/10 are still low limits, still packed with poor players, and very beatable, if you know what you’re looking for.
• bet on the end with a reasonable hand, and
• don’t buy doughnuts, they’re free out there.

This may be remedial, but I swear I just bought a DVD by Howard Lederer called "Secrets of No-Limit Hold’Em" wherein he explained how there are blinds instead of antes.  Oh, and tournament chips aren’t real money.  DURRR!

I hope that I can walk you through the possible winning hands in hold’em and how I think about them.

One Pair: obviously, it’s always possible that someone has a pair.  No matter what’s on the board, a pair is always possible in someone else’s hand.  (Don’t laugh: I’ve seen A9 bet a 9-high flop like the pot was just theirs, and run into JJ.  Wait, that was me, and I rivered another 9 to win the hand.  Anyway.)  And again, almost as obviously, a single card on the board higher than your pair should cause you worry.  I figure an A is about twice as likely to have hit someone than a K, and a K will have connected with someone more often than a Q or a J.  (If you’re trying to gauge how safe you are with pocket tens, nines, or lower… I don’t know what to tell you.  Bet and find out.)  So what does that mean?  If you’re holding QQ, and the flop came AK8, and you’ve got four opponents who did more than just limp in, you’re toast.  Toast!  But TT on a Q85 flop might be safe.  Again, you’ll have to bet and find out.  If you’re not sitting on a pair, scoring top pair is great, but you’re only going to be able to bet out confidently if you’ve got that top pair and that top kicker.  (I’ll catch up to this point later.)

In Phil Gordon’s book, he says he bets out 1/4th of the pot when the flop is paired (like AA2, KJJ, or 885), and 1/2 the pot when it’s got a pair and two of one suit.  That’s whether he’s hit it or not: only five cards could have been dealt that were hit by that flop, and if you’re called, you’re beat.  Often enough, you won’t be called.  I really like this play.

Two Pair: Clearly, almost any flop can give players two pair.  Any holding can become two pair, but it’s the quality of those two pairs that make AK more valuable than QJ.  (Okay, it’s more than just that, but it’s important to remember that any two cards can make two pair.)  Two pair can give top pair headaches, but I see people get into a lot of trouble with their two pair holdings.  It’s not a lock: top pair can pair their kicker on the next card, or any of the other cards you haven’t paired, and you can end up with the worst hand in poker… three pair, no kicker.  I feel a little sick just thinking about the times my BB hand made two pair, and I stuffed a bunch of money in, ahead, and got outdrawn by better cards that just hadn’t made their second pair yet.  Ah well.

Three of a kind: I read the other day that there are actually two words for this in hold’em: if you’ve got two cards, and you catch another on the board, that’s a set.  If the pair is on the board, and you have one of the other two cards, then they call that trips.  And now you know!

Trips is obviously a more dangerous situation: Your A9 might have caught an AAJ flop, but you don’t have any idea if AK or AQ are out there, and you’re in real trouble no matter what comes if you’re outkicked.  There’s also the minor concern that JJ might have hit a dream flop, but that’s worrying perhaps a bit too much about things you can’t control. 

At times, a set has only to worry about bigger sets.  In fact, a set as low as queens (I think) can be the absolute nuts on a specific board.  (I’m trying to eliminate any straights.  Anyone know?)  I’m much more concerned about flush draws than I am straights or overpairs / bigger sets when I flop a set.  Then again, I’m trying to stuff cash into the center of the table, so my concerns get sort of drowned out.

Straight: This used to give me fits.  Once I went all-in with a set and didn’t see a real obvious straight on the board.  Oh, once I thought I’d landed the nut straight and bet into the real nut straight.  Good times.  I try to put together likely holdings (two face cards on a flop always get me thinking about straight draws), and see if a straight might be out there, but here’s a trick I figured out on my own.  While connected cards and one-gappers should get your attention, remember that a straight requires five cards, and only seven are coming.  That means two, at most, are not going to participate in the straight.  If I’m holding J8 and I see the flop of 964… sure, I’m thinking that it could straighten up in two cards.  But basically, I’m thinking, the 6 and 4 don’t participate in the J-high straight, and the 9 doesn’t participate in any straight that the 4 is part of… so even though that’s my only out, it’s a bad one, and I’m wondering how quickly I can fold.  Pairs make this even easier: my JJ on a QQT flop already contains two cards that can’t participate in any possible straights.  If I’m hoping to improve to beat flopped trips, I’m going to have to do it with my two J outs. 

Flushes: these are the donk-easiest thing to look for in Hold’Em, and I have no idea why they’re so poorly played in the games I see.  If there are two of any suit on the board, with any more cards to come, the corresponding suited holding is one card away from a flush.  The all-in calculators will tell you that you’re 2:1 to improve to a flush in this situation, but you’re only 4:1 on the turn and 4:1 on the river, so make sure you’re getting those odds to play.  If your opponents have any clue, you won’t get those odds, but… ah, who am I kidding?  You’ll probably get them anyway.  I’m not sure if people have flopped middle pair, or they’re testing the waters, but on a two-flush flop, betting half the pot is almost a necessity.  (Against a single opponent, you only have to bet 1/3 of the pot to make it a mistake to call, but again, if you think the donkey manual says "fold your flush draw against a pot sized bet", you’d be way wrong.)  And another bad play: when the turn completes the three-flush (or three of one suit have hit on the flop), you absolutely have to protect anything worth chips with another half-pot bet.  Now the situation is worse: if that fourth heart comes, pocket Aces, straights, trips, sets… they’re all worthless, because anyone with a heart just picked up a flush.  Put another way: AA just became a drawing hand (with the right A), and you don’t want to give that hand the odds to call.  When I see someone stick 50 into a pot of 500 with two spades on the board, I assume he’s on the draw himself, and wants to prevent someone else from betting first.  I’m so often wrong: they’re frequently value betting top pair, two pair, or a set! 

Full house: any board with a pair on it can be hiding an opponent’s full house.  At the same time, no board without a pair can be hiding a full house, so you can pretty much bet away with the nut flush on an unpaired board.  (I’ve seen nut flushes call instead of raise to finish hands.  Stupid, stupid, stupid.)  Full houses are the one hand that still makes my head spin a little bit.  Here’s an example.  I called a raise with A2, and got all-in with a guy after a K22 flop.  The turn was an ace, and the river was another ace.  He turned over KK.  Now he got me all-in with a full house, even though I was feeling pretty invincible with my trips 2s.  I’d already made every mistake I was going to make by this point, so there’s no sense getting mad at me when I hit one of the four cards that can save my bacon.  (I need a pair of aces, or that last 2 would also be nice.)  I’m still a 93/7 underdog, but I’ve got a full house, and so does he, but his is Kings full, and mine is Twos full.  Then the Ace comes, and while he’s improved to Kings full of Aces, I’m now Aces full of Twos, and I scoop the pot.  (Actually, the pot is shoved towards me, and while I try to sort out the happenings, a man in Amsterdam is telling me I’m the worst he’s ever played against.)  But see how crazy things can get?  If you flop a full house with K8 on a K88 flop, JJ still has two outs against you, where 77 has none.  Not defending a full house (treating it like the everlasting nuts, when other hands are certainly live) is a mistake I see plenty.

Four of a kind: I picked up this hand today (55 on a J55 flop), and I totally forgot Phil Gordon’s tip about the pair on the board.  (Actually, we had a small stack all-in, and I was really hoping that I could get action from a jack.  When the turn came a jack, I got my wish.)

There’s absolutely nothing you can do about four of a kind.  (I’m not sure if there’s different terminology for having the fourth card on a board with three, or pairs in your hand and on the board, but maybe it’s so rare they don’t have to specify.)  Obviously, be on the lookout for pairs, but it really doesn’t matter if they’re high or low cards, since you’ll see your donkey opponents fold 55 about as frequently as AA pre-flop.  I wouldn’t go all-in with KK on an AAA flop, but maybe that’s because I’m a weak, timid coward.  I’d certainly give it some action after the turn and river had given my awestruck opponents a chance to make poorer full houses (see above).

Straight flushes: not much to do about these, either.  I’ve never seen it happen that the nut flush was beaten by a straight flush, but I’ve landed one or two, and I have seen the "ignorant end" of a straight flush beaten by the top side of it.  If I’m holding the AK of spades, and the board comes up T98, all spades, I’m not at all concerned about the Q, J, 7, or 6 coming up and completing a straight flush for someone else: I’m doubling up or going broke, and I don’t care how it happens.

I deposited $100 with Paradise, and took advantage of their "referral bonus" to put $50 in my bonus account, and $50 in my uncle’s.

Paradise gives you one point for paying a dollar towards a tournament fee, or one point for every raked hand (raked meaning raked more than .25, so a pot of more than $5 in NL, which happens fairly frequently at the $25 table with .10/.25 blinds).  After you get 100 points, you get $10 of your bonus.  Repeat.

Obviously, someone could pick up 20-40 points an hour playing cash games, and 1-2/hr in tournaments.  Cash games it was, then.

I cleared the bonus today, so it’s time to look at stats.  I won $50 over 1,373 hands.  My $25 NL rate was 2.26BB/100, but my $10NL rate was 33.  That’s obviously not a big enough sample size to guarantee anything, but the flop percentages were attractive: you can almost always find a table over 30% at these limits, and frequently over 40.  (At Empire now I can’t get anything above 20%.  They must be folding pocket kings.)

Possibly important side note: I lost a buy-in yesterday at $25 NL, when I held AA vs. QQ, and we got all-in preflop.  The flop was KJ9, all clubs, and I held the Ace of clubs.  This is a hair’s breadth from drawing dead: one of the two remaining queens was a club that would give me the nut flush.  The turn was another Ace: a queen on the river would only give my opponent second-best set.  The river, though, was one of the three non-club Tens in the deck, completing a soul-crushing, faith-robbing straight against all odds.  Of course, once two people are all-in on Paradise, they just push all the cards out and hand the money to the winner, so it was a lot less dramatic.  But the point: if I hadn’t angered the poker gods somehow, I’d have won that $25 instead of losing it, and I’d be up $100 instead of $50. 

Which is not to say I didn’t try tournaments.  I have a philisophical problem playing $5+1s (20% rakes are for live poker in casinos), and with my bankroll, I could only play $10+1s when I was feeling extra flush with cash, but that ends up not being a huge problem: I hit second place once, and out of the money six times.  Heads-up, I went 14-12, just barely enough to eek past the rake.

I cash out, then, up twenty-five cents, if you don’t count my bonus.  The plan for now is to take the original hundred out of Paradise, return it to Stars, and go back to small SnGs.  The money that’s left at Paradise should just live on the small NL tables: they’ve been extremely loose and generous, and I hope to milk them for a long time.

Oh, I should point out that I’m undefeated in heads-up tournaments that last two or fewer hands.  2-0!

The first was a few months ago: I was holding A2s in the first hand and flopped a flush draw.  The turn card gave me my flush, and doofus picked up two pair.  I brought him all-in, and he called.  Score!

The second was yesterday: hand 1, AKo in the BB, and since it took my opponent eight years to call, I pushed him all-in.  Fold.  Next hand: 66.  From the button, I pushed all-in.  He called with QTo, and my pair held up. 

Honestly, I think an all-in push has to be done three times before you say "this guy didn’t come to play poker, and I’m not going to let him get away with this anymore".  It happened in a SnG a few weeks back: he pushed his first hand preflop (from the BB), his second hand post-flop (from SB), and then reraised me all-in pre-flop with his third hand.  I called with AQo, and he turned over… QQ.  I still think it was a good call: we’ve all seen the type, and I decided to make my stand.  Someone had to, right?

But I caught an ace on the river to survive.  He still had a chunk of change from the blinds he’d picked up, but after a lot of loud braying about only playing solid hands, and how he guaranteed he’d finish in the money, he was out a few hands later in ninth.

I despise this game.  I am fed up with it.  I don’t even have my bonuses from this month any more.  I had to lay down a hand yesterday on a pot I’d invested $10 into.  Two hands later I picked up my $10 bonus.  Great.

Online poker is obviously rigged.

Okay, just kidding about that part.  But I did lose a heads-up tournament earlier today by having QQ cracked by AJ, AT fall to A5, and the final hand: TT lost to J9.  Which is interesting, because I hadn’t seen anything like these hands yesterday.  The cards have been awful.

I still have about $150 in the system, so I should probably quit those $5 heads up tournaments cold turkey (even though I’m still up on them).  $10 SnGs need to wait until the bankroll hits $250 again.  At least.  And while $5 SnGs are probably fine, I should probably play just as many $1 / $1.50 PS SnGs.  (Those 2-table Turbos they have are really fun, and I’ve had luck there.)

But first, I have to cash out the rest of that Paradise bonus… 100 more raked hands to go.  I just have no confidence that I’ll be able to do it without dropping $100 in the process… okay, I guess I’m pretty confident that won’t happen.

I’m playing in a $50 buy-in NL tournament on Saturday - offline.  It’s modeled after the PS deep stacks tourneys, so it should be a welcome change of pace from the high-speed games we usually play.  It would be an excellent idea to set up Poker Academy for these parameters and play a couple dozen sample runs against robot opponents.  I hope I get a chance over the next few days.

I’ve been at this for about six months now. 

• I’ve played 159 $5 SnGs, and I’m 38.4% ITM, with an ROI of… -7%?  Yikes.
• I’ve played 59 $10 SnGs, and I’m 40.7% ITM, with an ROI of .6%.  (Barely profitable.)

Now, about 80 SnGs in, I was very profitable.  June and July, in particular, were insane.  But looking at these actual stats (particularly, how small the Ns are), can I draw any conclusions at all?  I’m feeling like I’m hitting a disproportional number of 4ths and 5th, but how much of that is due to eliminating my 9th, 7th, and 6th finishes?

Here’s some more raw data:

• In cash games, I’ve played 194 hours (10,000 hands), and made $89.  At .10/.25 NL (the highest stakes I can really play, no matter what my bankroll), I make about 1BB/hr. 
• In heads up tournaments, I’m 63-56.  That’s enough to beat the rake, actually.

So I’m not the worst.  (I don’t have a lot of short-handed data, but I think I’m probably less practiced there.)  I can see that there are some gaps in my game, but nothing glaring (nothing like a 100% VP$IP with KQo, or a lot of cold calling… nothing unfixable, anyway). 

On some days, the only number that matters is the bottom line of my Excel sheet.  And right now, it’s showing a $75 profit over the past two months.  All of it bonuses.  Maybe I do suck.